Jerome H. Powell, a Federal Reserve Chair with guts

«Jerome Powell isn’t known for his expressiveness. The chair of the Federal Reserve has kept quiet over the past year as President Trump has repeatedly attacked him—often with crude language (think moron, numbskull, dumb, and loser). That changed yesterday, when Powell announced that he is under criminal investigation by Trump’s Justice Department. In a video statement, he responded to the threat of indictment with remarkable clarity.»

The Candor of Jerome Powell, Will Gottsegen, The Atlantic

 «(...) The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President.

This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions—or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.

I have served at the Federal Reserve under four administrations, Republicans and Democrats alike. In every case, I have carried out my duties without political fear or favor, focused solely on our mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Public service sometimes requires standing firm in the face of threats. I will continue to do the job the Senate confirmed me to do, with integrity and a commitment to serving the American people.»

Excerpt from the Statement from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome H. Powell

Dúvidas (365) - A minha ditadura é melhor do que a tua?

«Não é portanto de admirar que, depois da Renée Nicole Good ter sido assassinada em Minneapolis, o pessoal tenha saído à rua em protesto; com o ICE a intensificar a violência, ainda mais pessoas erguem a voz e cada vez se vê mais homens brancos heterossexuais a juntarem-se ao movimento--imagine-se que até o podcaster Josh Rogan já comparou o ICE à GESTAPO. Mas há um aspecto lúdico: não deixa de ter piada que os que defendem os métodos autoritários de Trump sejam os mesmos que estejam preocupados com o Irão, a Venezuela, etc., como se dissessem "A minha ditadura é melhor do que a tua..."

Todos os dias aprendemos coisas novas acerca das acções do ICE, que agora até prende cidadãos americanos e não devolvem os pertences pessoais que confiscam às pessoas quando as prendem - os documentos, as jóias, a carteira, o telemóvel, as chaves do carro, etc. Não interessa se a pessoa fez alguma coisa de mal, se está em casa ou no carro, se é americana, se é deficiente, homem, mulher, criança, etc. Até os índios nativos americanos prendem e tentam deportar porque têm um tom de pele mais moreno. Vivemos num estado de completa ilicitude e isto só tem tendência a piorar.»

 Rita R. Carreira (trabalha e reside nos EU) no blog A Destreza das Dúvidas

Crónica da passagem de um governo (32b)

Outras Crónicas do Governo de Passagem

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(Continuação de 32a)

O ministro das Finanças chumbou no exame de Economia (cont). Fiscalidade no arrendamento

Estima-se que 60% dos contratos de arrendamento não sejam registados nas Finanças. Poderia pensar-se que, por isso, a fiscalidade no arrendamento é irrelevante, pois apenas 40% beneficiariam do seu alívio e que, em contrapartida, o mais importante para os proprietários seria a garantia de despejo por falta de pagamento das rendas. Parece-me, ao contrário, que a razão principal de grande parte dos arrendamentos não terem contrato registado é precisamente a punição fiscal e por isso os senhorios preferem correr o risco de não registarem os contratos ainda que isso torne o despejo mais difícil ou mesmo impossível. Daí a importância do alívio fiscal no arrendamento por uma redução das taxas de IRS do senhorio e um aumento do limite da dedução das rendas por parte do inquilino, sendo que esta última medida induzirá maior pressão dos inquilinos para o registo dos contratos.

A curva de Laffer sugere que, da redução da taxa de IRS sobre os arrendamentos, poderá não resultar a redução da arrecadação fiscal ao tornar menos punitiva a opção dos senhorios registarem os contratos, o que predisporia a aceitação pelo inquilino de um aumento da renda, compensado por uma maior dedução fiscal.

Consequências previsíveis, mas imprevistas

A ocorrência nas últimas semanas de algumas mortes por indisponibilidade de ambulâncias, levou o Dr. Montenegro a anunciar com espalhafato a compra de 275 viaturas para o INEM… ambulâncias cuja compra tinha sido autorizada pelo governo do Dr. Costa em Novembro de 2023. Ao que parece, a falta de ambulâncias resulta, pelo menos em parte, de ficarem retidas nas urgências enquanto os “utentes” aguardam o atendimento. Por isso, é bem possível que, em vez de reduzir os tempos de espera (um resultado difícil, dado o estado do SNS), o governo adopte a receita do costume de despejar dinheiro em cima dos problemas e autorize a compra de mais ambulâncias até que faltem bombeiros para as conduzir.

Canários na mina de carvão

Embalados pela aparente prosperidade (Portugal foi o país da OCDE em que os rendimentos do trabalho mais aumentaram em 2024), garantida pela entrada até ao final do ano passado de 14 mil milhões de fundos PRR e pelo afluxo turístico, pouca gente parece ter reparado que até Novembro as exportações apenas cresceram 0,6%, enquanto as importações aumentaram 4,3% e por isso o défice da balança comercial aumentou até Novembro para 2 mil milhões, que os yields nas novas emissões de dívida estão a aumentar e que todas as previsões de crescimento sugerem que o aumento do PIB em 2026 será inferior ao de 2025, já em si bastante modesto (2%).

Chocará a Estratégia Digital Nacional com a realidade? O Quinto Império Digital

Com o deslumbramento que ficará como a sua imagem de marca, o Dr. Matias, ministro do Estado Reformado, convenceu o governo a aprovar a Agenda Nacional de inteligência artificial (resolução do Conselho de Ministro n.º 2/2026) derramada em duas dezenas de páginas do Diário da República, com as trivialidades habituais no patuá da consultoria, incluindo um Plano de Acção que inclui uma Cloud Soberana e um Ecossistema de Inovação Digital na Administração Pública. É uma espécie de anúncio de um Quinto Império Digital.

Crónica da passagem de um governo (32a)

Outras Crónicas do Governo de Passagem

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A Portela não se protela mais. O tempo das realizações ainda não começou e o dos resultados ainda não sabemos

Depois décadas de adiamentos pelos quais todos os governos foram responsáveis, o ministro das Infraestruturas, Dr. Pinto Luz, ao inaugurar a enésima expansão do Terminal do Aeroporto da Portela, espetou ameaçadoramente o dedinho na cara do Dr. Arnaut, actual presidente do CA da ANA que no passado exerceu uma dúzia de cargos políticos e entre eles o de ministro que tutelou os aeroportos, e disse sem se rir «o tempo dos adiamentos acabou, teremos um novo aeroporto dentro de 10 a 12 anos».

Ideias simples para reformas baratas

Há vários anos que o (Im)pertinências vem criticando as políticas energéticas dos sucessivos governos (ver, por exemplo, este post de 2017), em particular, os avultados subsídios aos operadores, através do mecanismo das tarifas garantidas.

[Carlos Enes no jornal Sol (sem link)]

O diagrama acima evidencia os sobrecustos para os consumidores e as empresas desses subsídios políticos e também um aspecto geralmente ignorado que é o desequilíbrio dos preços garantidos de compra aos produtores domésticos e aos pequenos produtores empresariais. Aqui está uma oportunidade para o governo fazer uma reforma barata e simples.

O ministro das Finanças chumbou no exame de Economia

A semana passada, o Dr. Miranda Sarmento disse com orgulho que a isenção de IMT e do Imposto de Selo na compra de casa beneficiou cerca de 70 mil jovens e a garantia pública beneficiou 23 mil jovens. Dito de outro modo, estes incentivos representaram uma percentagem significativa do número de casas vendidas em 2025. Entretanto, o ministro ainda não decretou a revogação das leis da procura (que aumentou em boa parte devido a essa medidas) e da oferta, que não aumentou, apesar da palavra de ordem do ministro «oferta, oferta, oferta», porque não foram tomadas as medidas necessárias, que vão desde o aumento das superfícies urbanizáveis e a simplificação da burocracia desmedida no licenciamento e na aprovação de projectos até aos benefícios fiscais de incentivo ao arrendamento para colocar no mercado as 250 mil casas vazias em boas condições e à construção.

(Continua)

The Trump administration as seen by John Bolton, a self-confessed Reaganite (3)

In late November, John Bolton, a Republican politician who served as National Security Advisor to President Donald Trump from April 2018 to September 2019, among many other positions, was interviewed by David Rennie, editor of The Economist. The following text is the third and the last part of an excerpt from that interview (John Bolton on American foreign policy), obtained through automatic voice recognition and therefore subject to errors, which includes parts that are most significant for drawing a portrait of Donald Trump's administration.

Continuation of (1) and (2)

John Bolton

So what that will do to Republican house and senate members is cause them to wonder how safe they are in their own districts. They've been worried about a Trump opponent in the primary. Now, a good number of them are going to start worrying. (…)

Maybe I should worry about the democratic opponent in November and that will accelerate. I hope the propensity to stand up and say what's good for the member to help them get re-elected that will not be necessarily what Trump wants so officials ever going to happen. I mean, Trump trump is not a normal president, not a normal person. (…)

He (Trump) is an aberration, and so he would have been out of the mould right through to the end. The real issue is whether in that circumstance, he doesn't spend more time on domestic policy or more time on building his ballroom, the drapes and carpets at the Kennedy Center, putting more gold filigree up in the White House. All of those things are possible, but Trump's erratic behaviour in international affairs has been demonstrated for 5 years. (…)

It won't change in the last 3 years. No matter what that's a danger that's not something anybody should take comfort and something to worry about until he leaves the office.

David Rennie

Help our viewers understand what this looks like. In 10 - 20 years time.

John Bolton

And he gets flexible, but it's going to take time the damage that he has done by talking about withdrawing American power and by acting in ways that I think are contrary to our best interests, by intimidating and causing our allies to back away from us, in the hope that the authoritarian states will make deals. That they'll adhere to is about as naive a foreign policy approach as I can imagine so I don't underestimate the difficulty of the task, but I think that that the reaction in the United States will be such that a lot of work will be undertaken fairly quickly and the worst thing that our foreign friends could do is assume that the US will behave like Trump forever. (…)

If that were the case, then I would expect a certain kind of behaviour, I don't expect that's going to be the case, and I think they need to think about that so when you have foreign leaders like chancellor merits of Germany. At near the beginning of the Trump term he said we need independence from the United States, I'd be careful about things like that. Because Trump in the 3 years he had left could say, well fine If the Europeans want to be independent, we're withdrawal with NATO, we don't want to impose ourselves on anyone think about what comes after Trump and calibrate the policies accordingly.

The Trump administration as seen by John Bolton, a self-confessed Reaganite (2)

In late November, John Bolton, a Republican politician who served as National Security Advisor to President Donald Trump from April 2018 to September 2019, among many other positions, was interviewed by David Rennie, editor of The Economist. The following text is the second part of an excerpt from that interview (John Bolton on American foreign policy), obtained through automatic voice recognition and therefore subject to errors, which includes parts that are most significant for drawing a portrait of Donald Trump's administration.

Continuation of (1)

John Bolton

I will just say it is clearly as I can. Trump doesn't think at that level. His supporters say he's playing a complex game of 3-dimensional Chess. (…)

No, he's not. He's playing one move at a time look at the situation in Venezuela, where we can't make heads near tales of it. At the present time. (…)

David Rennie
You'd think if he really believed in spheres of influence, Maduro would have been gone long ago. (…)

John Bolton
Becky knows enough to know that he used to say he was totally against the war in Iraq, and he was one of the few he said who sold the consequences, which isn't true, but that's what he says, but he'd often then say unless we took the oil. So, it's a kind of primitive thing if I can make a deal with Ukraine to get its mineral reserves. Well then ok, maybe we'll support Ukraine. (…)

It's all transactional, and everything is a deal he could make a deal out of Vanuatu or Kiribati in the Pacific. If he thought he saw the possibility that that's what governed is thinking not conceptual ideas about spheres of influence, or even spheres of influence, and in a purely pragmatic one. Because Trump believes the world is what he says, it is. (…)

It's not that he lies. It's not that he knows the difference between truth and falsehood and consciously chooses falsehood. He just makes things up. (…)

So, if he gave away Taiwan in a trade negotiation, he would declare victory nonetheless, he makes these things up. And yet, people believe him, he said, I've solved 8 wars, and 8 months in office, which he has not, but his base says he just he solved 8 wars and 8 months, so his great confidence in being able to announce victory and expects that people will believe it. Trump is never going to be normal. (…)

He has. An aberration, and thank God for that, but I think the diminution of Trump's power, the loss of his ability to intimidate Republicans has already Begun with the results of the 2025 election, I think Republicans were shocked. It's true. (…)

They're not, they're not full elections like we will have in 2026, you have to be somewhat careful and drawing your conclusions, but other things that are happening. In addition to the elections earlier this month, the rejection by Republican Senators of Trump's called and the filibuster, the opposition to the mid cycle, redistricting effort that a number of Republican parties in in the states have undertaken and then the incredible revolt by the MEGA base. Itself on the Jeffrey Epstein scandal, I think, I think we're at the point where Trump is now on the downhill, that doesn't guarantee the rate of descent or how far it goes, but it's a little bit like the wizard of eyes, you pull the curtain back and suddenly. (…)

Everybody's operating in a different world. I think that's happening. I hope I'm not too optimistic, but I do have a sense that that's beginning. (…)

(To be continued)

The Trump administration as seen by John Bolton, a self-confessed Reaganite (1)

In late November, John Bolton, a Republican politician who served as National Security Advisor to President Donald Trump from April 2018 to September 2019, among many other positions, was interviewed by David Rennie, editor of The Economist. The following text is an excerpt from that interview (John Bolton on American foreign policy), obtained through automatic voice recognition and therefore subject to errors, which includes parts that are most significant for drawing a portrait of Donald Trump's administration.

David Rennie

(...) is Donald Trump finally getting the foreign policy that he always wanted. 

John Bolton

Well, I think in the second term, Trump has implemented a lesson he learned in the first term, which is that he should surround himself with men and women who just say yes, sir, when he says something. And that what some people called guard rails in the first term have disappeared, they weren't really guardrails. They were efforts at least in the national security space to help the president make well informed decisions.(…) 

Ultimately, the president will make all the big decisions. The question is, will they be? Well-thought-out, or will they be neuron flashes? 

David Rennie

Out of Ukraine is so urgent that I want to begin with that. Our allies right to be concerned that a bad deal could be imposed on Ukraine. 

John Bolton

At least as of what we know now, this is a terrible deal for Ukraine and it stems from the reality that Trump sees International Relations through the prism of his personal relations with foreign heads of government. So he has long thought he and Vladimir Putin were friends. I'll guarantee it that's not how.(…)

Putin sees it, but Trump has been disappointed for 10 months that he hasn't been able to make a peace deal now. He's trying again and from what we can see. The terms of this are entirely favourable to the Kremlin would be a disaster for Ukraine.(…) 

Well, I think I think he wants to be a big guy to deal with other big guys, and do what big guys do, and he did have that kind of fascination with air to one of Turkey and others, I'll leave it to the psychiatrist to tell us why? But it plays into their hands, and particularly in the case of Vladimir Putin trained KGB agent, trained to assess weaknesses and opportunities and the people he's dealing with and to exploit them, and I think I think that's what he has consistently done with Trump.(…) 

Well, in part, but he knows so little, it almost doesn't matter before I arrived at the White House he asked John Kelly, then the chiefs of staff is Finland's still part of Russia. He's heard from people at the Mar-a-Lago club that basically, Ukraine is Russian. They speak Russian.(…)

It's all the same thing, and he doesn't understand the Ukrainians have decided they actually want to be independent.(…)

(To be continued)